In the next 20 years (2015-2034), according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6% a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new aircraft above 100 seats (31,800 passenger & 800 freighters greater than 10 tonnes) worth US$4.9 trillion. By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will more than double from today’s 19,000 aircraft to 38,500. Some 13,100 passenger and freighter aircraft will be replaced with more fuel efficient types.

Emerging economies which collectively account for six billion people, are the real engines of worldwide traffic growth. They will grow at 5.8% per year compared to more advanced economies, like those in Western Europe or North America, that are forecast to grow collectively at 3.8%. Emerging economies also account for 31% of worldwide private consumption which will rise to 43% by 2034. Economic growth rates in emerging economies such as China, India, Middle East, Africa and Latin America will exceed the world average. A knock on effect is that middle classes will double to almost 5 billion people.

The tendency to travel by air is increasing. In today’s emerging economies, 25% of the population take one trip per year, and this will increase sharply to 74% by 2034. In advanced economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two trips per year.

“Asia-Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034 and China will be the world’s biggest aviation market within 10 years, and clearly Asia and emerging markets are the catalyst for strong air traffic growth,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “Today, we are ramping up production of the A350 XWB and we are studying further production rate increases beyond rate 50 for single aisle aircraft to meet the increasing demand for air transportation.”

Long-haul traffic will increasingly be to, from or between aviation mega-cities*, rising from 90% (0.9 million passengers a day) today to 95% (2.3 million passengers a day) by 2034. Aviation mega-cities are centres of urbanisation and wealth creation and will increase from 47 to 91 cities by 2034 with 35% of World GDP centred there. These mega cities are already served well by air transportation and the existing route network will accommodate 70% of all traffic growth between now and 2034.

In the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards higher capacity aircraft on long-haul and an increasingly wide range of regional and domestic sectors. As a result, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 9,600 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some US$2.7 trillion. This represents 30% of all new aircraft deliveries and 55% by value. Airbus will be especially well placed to win a leading share of the widebody market, with the A330, A350 and A380 representing the most modern and comprehensive product line available today from 200 to over 500 seats.

In the single aisle market, where the A320 Family and the latest generation A320neo Family are firmly established as the global market leaders, the latest Airbus forecast sees a requirement for nearly 23,000 new aircraft worth US$2.2 trillion over the next 20 years, an increase of nearly 1,000 aircraft compared to the previous forecast, representing 70% of all new units and 45% of the value of all deliveries.

Globally traffic growth has led to average aircraft size ‘growing’ by 46% since the 1980s with airlines selecting larger aircraft or up-sizing existing backlogs. Larger aircraft like the A380 combined with higher load factors make the most efficient use of limited slots at airports and contribute to rising passenger numbers without additional flights as confirmed by London’s Heathrow Airport. A focus on sustainable growth has enabled fuel burn and noise reductions of at least 70 per cent in the last 40 years and this trend continues with innovations like the A320neo, the A330neo, the A380 and the A350 XWB.

20-year Current Market Outlook reflects 3.5 percent increase in demand over 2014

Single-aisle, small/medium twin-aisle segments lead growth in airplanes and value
Seattle, WA | June 11, 2015– Boeing [NYSE: BA] projects a demand for 38,050 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 3.5 percent from last year’s forecast. Boeing released its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) today, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $5.6 trillion.

A downloadable CMO infographic is available here: http://bit.ly/1KTLv6M.

“The commercial airplane market continues to be strong and resilient,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “As we look forward, we expect the market to continue to grow and the demand for new aircraft to be robust.”

By the end of the forecast period, the commercial airplane fleet will double, from 21,600 airplanes in 2014 to 43,560 airplanes in 2034. Fifty-eight percent of the 38,050 airplanes delivered over that time will be to accommodate growth.

Passenger traffic will continue to grow at about a 4.9 percent annual pace, near the historic trend line of 5 percent. More than 7 billion passengers will fly by the end of the forecast period. Cargo traffic will grow at about 4.7 percent per year.

The single-aisle market continues to be the fastest-growing, largest overall segment, requiring 26,730 airplanes over the coming two decades. These aircraft are the foundation of the world’s airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of the world’s commercial aviation routes. This sector is fueled by growth in low-cost carriers and airlines in developing and emerging markets.

“At the heart of the single-aisle market are the Boeing 737-800 and the future 737 MAX 8,” said Tinseth. “These airplanes offer customers the most fuel efficiency, reliability and capability in this class.”

About 35 percent of the single-aisle market will go to low-cost carriers, Tinseth noted. “Low-cost carriers will require airplanes that combine the best economics with the most revenue potential. With 20 percent lower fuel use, the 737 MAX 200 will be the ideal machine for them.”

Boeing forecasts that the widebody segment will require 8,830 new airplanes, led by small widebody airplanes in the 200- to 300-seat range such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner. This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift in demand from very large airplanes to efficient new twin-engine products such as the 787 and new 777X.

While airline growth still accounts for the majority of new demand, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement. About 2 to 3 percent of the installed fleet will require replacement each year.

“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are perfectly positioned to capture this important wave of replacement,” Tinseth said.

The air cargo market continues to strengthen, and will drive demand of some 920 new airplanes over the 20-year forecast.

“We’ve seen two years of solid growth in the air cargo market and we expect that growth to continue,” Tinseth said. “That’s great news for our line of production freighters, including the 747-8, 767 and 777.”

Boeing’s Current Market Outlook is the longest running jet forecast and regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.

The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.

• Future journeys will increasingly rely on aviation

September 24, 2013– As aviation becomes increasingly accessible in all parts of the world, future Journeys will increasingly be made by air particularly to and from emerging markets. According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) in the next 20 years (2013-2032), air traffic will grow at 4.7 per cent annually requiring over 29,220 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion. Some 28,350 of these are passenger aircraft valued at US$4.1 trillion. Of these, some 10,400 will replace existing aircraft with more efficient ones. With today’s fleet of 17,740 aircraft, it means that by 2032, the worldwide fleet will double to nearly 36,560 aircraft.

Economic growth, growing middle classes, affordability, ease of travel, urbanisation, tourism, and migration are some factors increasing connectivity between people and regions and how often they travel. Increasing urbanisation will lead to a doubling of mega cities from 42 today to 89 by 2032, and 99 per cent of the world’s long-haul traffic will be between or through these.

Traffic growth has led to average aircraft size ‘growing’ by 25 per cent with airlines selecting larger aircraft or up-sizing existing backlogs. Larger aircraft like the A380 combined with higher load factors make the most efficient use of limited slots and contribute to rising passenger numbers without additional flights as announced by London’s Heathrow Airport. A focus on sustainable growth enabled fuel burn and noise reductions of at least 70 per cent in the last 40 years and this trend continues with innovations like the A320neo, the A320 Sharklet, the A380 and the A350 XWB.

“By 2032, Asia-Pacific will lead the world in traffic overtaking Europe and North America. Today on average, a fifth of the population of the emerging markets take a flight annually and by 2032, this will swell to two thirds. The attraction of air travel means that passenger numbers will more than double from today’s 2.9 billion, to 6.7 billion by 2032, clearly demonstrating aviation’s essential role in economic growth,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer – Customers.

Domestic flows are also set to rise strongly with domestic India growing at the fastest rate (nearly 10 per cent), followed by China and Brazil (seven per cent). Overall, with an above world average traffic growth rate of 5.5 per cent, Asia-Pacific will account for 36 per cent of all new passenger aircraft demand, followed by Europe (20 per cent) and North America (19 per cent).

In the Very Large aircraft market, dominated by the A380, there is a requirement for 1,334 passenger aircraft valued at US$519 billion. Of these, 47 per cent will be needed in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by the Middle East (26 per cent) and then Europe (16 per cent). Asia-Pacific’s requirement for the A380 is demonstrated by the region’s growth in middle classes which is set to quadruple in Asia-Pacific in 20 years.

In the Twin Aisle market, covered by amongst others the A350 XWB and the A330, the requirement is for 6,779 aircraft valued at US$1.82 trillion. Of these, 48 per cent of deliveries will be in Asia Pacific, followed by Europe (15 per cent) and the Middle East (13 per cent).

The Single Aisle market represents 71 per cent of deliveries by unit numbers with a requirement for 20,242 aircraft valued at US$1.80 trillion. Asia-Pacific will require 34 per cent of deliveries followed by North America and Europe requiring 23 per cent each. The global success of low cost carriers (LCC) especially in Europe, and increasingly in Asia, the Middle East and Africa is helping to open new markets and give access to the benefits of flight to first time flyers from these regions. By 2032, LCCs will have increased their traffic market share from today’s 17 per cent to 21 per cent.

This week the IFExpress Hot Topic is one of our mixed bag of stories we found while casting about the IFEC industry and we thought we would start of with a bit of IFExpress news. Next week, our Hot Topic will cover one of most important products to ever grace the passenger cabin experience – the Boeing Sky Interior. We trolled the world of aviation, interviewed experts and talked to suppliers to get the big picture for our readers, and we have to confess, it was not easy. We will tell you why next week but the “look and feel” of the BSI is one of the most important airplane design developments to come along in recent years. When was the last time you sat for a few hours in your assigned airline seat and “felt” good about the experience? Well, that’s what the latest trend in flying is all about; having passengers “feel” good about the experience. Here is what one Boeing executive said about the concept: Even though the 787 is not a jumbo-it will carry about two hundred fifty passengers, three hundred fewer than the A380-it appears to have the spatial qualities of one. The door opens onto a vaulted lobby rather than a cramped vestibule. And there is a surprising amount of light, thanks to the single most revolutionary feature of the 787: its huge windows. Wider and notably taller-extending from the armrest to above the top of the seat-they instantly erase that sense of walking into a claustrophobic tube. Moreover, they invite us to revisit the idea of flying as an ever-changing spectacle of earth and sky-like having an IMAX of one’s own.” We plan on covering what Boeing studied how they went about redesigning their cabins to change how you feel on their aircraft. Here is a hint… the lighting says it all! Stay Tuned on this one.

Infographics deliver a lot of information in a small space and they are eye-catching. The first ones we saw some 10 years ago were at Boeing and IFExpress just found their newest one – The Commercial Aviation Forecast 2013 – 2032. The first IFEC info graphics we saw were at the OnAir booth at AIX and you can see more here: Global Spending On Air Travel in 2011 [INFOGRAPHIC]. You can build your own with a free computer app from infogr.am – lets see what your company can do?

We asked a long-time DRM expert on the APEX Technology Committee,
responsible for drafting many of the industry’s digital delivery standards including content security, assures us that there are no DRM solutions acceptable to the preponderance of Hollywood studios that do not require an app or plug-in to implement. Rumors that recent Hollywood movies might be provided in IFE without DRM or without app-based DRM are incorrect, he tells us.”

We hear that Eddie Hseih is going to be the new Mr. Panasonic in China, or is that Mr. China in Panasonic?

Afterthought: Here in the Northwestern US, images of salmon are quite commonplace; however, many of our readers might not have the opportunity to fly in one like we can here.

Note: If you think this has nothing to do with IFE, you are wrong. Alaska just implemented a fleet wide installation of inseat power as we noted last week. We got the image in late!