• Region’s largest market represents 35 percent of Latin America’s air traffic

November 26, 2013 — According to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) the Brazilian air travel market will need 1,324 aircraft by 2032 to address the country’s rising international and domestic air travel requirements. The 896 single-aisle, 353 twin-aisle and 75 very large aircraft (VLA) are forecast to help meet the rising demand from domestic and foreign carriers in Brazil almost tripling the in-service fleet from today’s 480 to more than 1320 aircraft by 2032.

With a GDP forecast to grow at 4 percent annually, above the world average of 3.1 percent, socioeconomic trends suggest Brazil’s economy will more than double over the next 20 years. Brazil’s air traffic is expected to follow suit, growing at an annual rate of 6.8 percent by 2032, far exceeding the world average of 4.7 percent.

Driven by a growing middle class, increased consumer spending as well as a booming tourism sector, Brazil represents 35 percent of all Latin America’s air traffic, making it the region’s largest and amongst the fastest growing markets, having more than doubled since 2000. Since then, international traffic alone has increased at an impressive 87 percent. As the market has grown, carriers from Brazil have been unable to benefit at the same pace as foreign carriers such as those from Europe and North America.
More than 40 percent of South America’s long-haul traffic arrives through three Brazilian airports, including Guarulhos International Airport in Sao Paulo which is the number one international airport for long-haul traffic in Latin America. Very large aircraft such as the A380, would be ideal aircraft for these cities with their high density traffic including Rio. VLAs can carry more passengers with fewer flights, while meeting the international air traffic requirements needed to serve long-haul flights to Europe and North America.

“With nearly half of the region’s long-haul traffic going through Brazil, the A380 could alleviate traffic congestion at busy airports, such as Guarulhos , which represents 25 percent of total international traffic in Latin America,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “The A380 would also support the huge tourism flows expected around the upcoming football World Cup and the Olympic Games.”

The country’s domestic air traffic market has grown an impressive 2.4 times since 2000, consolidating Brazil’s position as the fourth largest domestic market in the world by 2032, only surpassed by China, the United States and India.

“The A350 XWB and A320neo deliveries starting from the second half of 2014 and 2015, respectively could not come soon enough, with single and twin-aisle aircraft making up the vast majority of aviation demand in Brazil,” added John Leahy. “These ultra-efficient aircraft are ideally suited to address mounting challenges presented to airlines by high fuel costs and an ever-competitive passenger market seeking comfort and low fares.”
Airlines in Brazil are also operating some of the newest and most efficient aircraft in the world. With an average age of seven years, 34 percent lower than the world’s average, Brazil is leading a regional trend. The average age of Latin America’s in-service fleet is currently 9.5 years, down 42 percent since 2000.

In Latin America, Airbus foresees a 20-year demand for more than 2,307 new aircraft, including 1,794 single-aisle, 475 twin-aisle and 38 very large aircraft, estimated at approximately $292 billion. Globally, by 2032 some 29,230 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion will be required to satisfy future robust market demand.

With more than 800 aircraft sold and a backlog of almost 400, over 500 Airbus aircraft are in operation throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. In the last 10 years, Airbus has tripled its in-service fleet, while delivering more than 60 percent of all aircraft operating in the region.

• Intra-regional route development gives region huge potential for growth

November 14, 2013– According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), Latin American airlines will require 2,307 new aircraft between 2013 and 2032, including 1,794 single-aisle, 475 twin-aisle and 38 very large aircraft (VLA) worth an estimated US$292 billion. Globally, by 2032 some 29,230 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion will be required to satisfy future robust market demand.

With GDP currently growing above the world average (3.6 percent per year over the last two years, versus 2.6 percent for the world) socio-economic indicators forecast that Latin America’s middle class will grow to represent more than half of the population by 2032. Between 2012 and 2020, Latin America’s economy is expected to outperform the world average, largely thanks to Mexico and Brazil’s consumer spending. As a result, traffic growth in Latin America in the next 20 years is expected to outperform the world average of 4.7 percent with an annual growth rate of 5.2 percent.

A growing middle class and increased consumer spending have led to air transport becoming more accessible throughout Latin America in the past 10 years, increasing 14 percent in terms of total number of cities served. Still, while almost 100 percent of the 20 largest cities in North America and Europe connect passengers with at least one flight per day, only 40 percent of Latin America’s top 20 cities do the same. As a result, in the next 20 years, intra-regional and domestic traffic is expected to grow at an impressive rate of 6.3 percent, becoming the biggest market for Latin American carriers.

This untapped intra-regional potential partly explains why Airbus forecasts that in the next 20 years two-thirds of the population in emerging markets will take a trip a year, positioning Latin American airlines to enjoy the second highest traffic growth rates worldwide, after Middle Eastern airlines.

While 10 of the 92 worldwide aviation mega-cities with over 10,000 international passengers a day will be in Latin America by 2032, additional opportunities exist for Latin American airlines to capitalize on. Currently, Latin America’s six largest carriers have 19 percent market share of the region’s long-haul traffic, while regions like North America and Europe enjoy nearly 40 percent.

“Very large aircraft, such as the A380, not only help alleviate traffic congestion at busy airports, but they can assist Latin American airlines to compete with their foreign competitors,” said Rafael Alonso, Executive Vice President of Airbus for Latin America and the Caribbean. “At the same time the A380 addresses international air traffic requirements needed to serve long-haul flights to Europe.”

Another prevalent trend in Latin America is the rise of low cost carriers (LCC), which accounts for nearly 40 percent of the market share of total air traffic in the region, up from just 12 percent in 2003, with Mexico and Brazil representing nearly the entire market. A highly competitive LCC market has led airlines to constantly seek the most efficient aircraft available, largely driving the average age of Latin America’s in-service fleet to 9.5 years, down 42 percent since 2000, as compared to the world average age of 10.7 years.

While many Latin American airlines have gone through great efforts to maintain a young and highly-efficient fleet, the average aircraft age in Latin America could decrease further when Caribbean carriers start their renewal process.

“Aircraft in the Caribbean average about 17 years of age – – that’s more than seven years older than the Latin America and world average,” said Alonso. “We’ve already started seeing some airlines in the Caribbean take advantage of current market opportunities and achieve greater operational benefits associated to newer generation aircraft. As more follow, the average aircraft age in the region will continue to drop.”

With more than 800 aircraft sold and a backlog of almost 400, over 500 Airbus aircraft are in operation throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. In the last 10 years, Airbus has tripled its in-service fleet, while delivering more than 60 percent of all aircraft operating in the region.

Perhaps, the biggest non-hardware news at APEX this year was the introduction of new CEO of Thales Inflight Entertainment and Connectivity Company, Dominique Giannoni. Mr. Giannoni (above left) has been in a Thales leadership position for more than 15 years focused on both military and commercial aerospace markets. He joined Thales in 2003 as head of the company’s Underwater Systems business line for Submarines and then later lead the Thales Military Avionics Business Line. In all, he has been in the military and commercial sector for 6 years and actually ran an avionics factory for a time. In July 2013, he was appointed to the position of CEO for the company’s In-Flight Entertainment and Connectivity (IFEC) business and was introduced to the IFE press at APEX. Dominique has worked in the Telecom world as well as the French Defense Ministry and has a Masters Degree from MIT. In this new capacity, Dominique will take the business through its next growth phase rounding out the operations (grow the brand) advanced products and services with added-value propositions to global airlines (grow the customer base). It appears Thales has the right man for the job but he will have his work cut out for him. We expect to see him very involved in new product development activity to increase the product depth, and to be immersed in the relationship between Thales and their CETC partner in China. In-house, we expect him to fine-tune a lot of the operations as he gets more involved with the product line and customer requirements. No doubt, roles and missions will change at Thales. We should also mention the new position that Alan Pellegrini (above right) fills – President and CEO, Thales USA. Long-time IFE’er Pellegrini is now responsible for all Thales US companies and will have offices in Irvine and Washington, DC.

IFExpress did a little research on Alan’s work history and it is impressive to see the companies that benefited from his tenure: CEO, IMS; President, Panasonic Transportation Systems; Senior VP, Panasonic Avionics; President & CEO Tenzing; VP Marketing & Sales Rockwell; VP Marketing & Sales Hughes Avicom. Thales has assembled a strong management team and the next dew years ought to be interesting. Good luck Alan and Dominique!

Airbus has delivered their 2013 – 2032 Market Forecast and you can watch the 1 hour YouTube version. Also, check out the great market infographic. If you need an Airbus Android App, try this one – or an Airbus iOS App. Enjoy!

A while back we did a story on the newly designed aircraft retractable monitor with its developer and designer, Yukio Sugimoto. If you have a technical bent you may remember that his product was an engineer’s dream instead of a mechanical nightmare that often plagues these devices. In all fairness, the FAA restrictions and requirements on retractable monitors are moderately onerous, especially considering the fact that they must operate with power that is subject to dropping out for up to 150 milliseconds… not to mention issues like the necessity to retract under loss of power or emergency situations. This explains the high mechanical parts count and resultant weight increase of competitive units, not to mention stored energy springs and clutches to facilitate zero power retractions. The ACS patent pending solution involves storing energy in capacitors – that’s the simple answer but it is a circuitry design solution as well! Check out the spy shot of the mechanicals here. The unit sports 9.7 and 12 inch monitors and FAA certification testing is now underway and at last count passed 250,000+ cycles and is going strong. In fact, he is guaranteeing a 50,000-cycle non-failure or 5 year warranty. Yukio noted, “The new, bigger display actually retracts flat against the outside of the PSU while the rest of the frame and the electronics are buried in the PSU itself – the box sits between the rails while the display (and cover) protrudes ½ an inch above the surface and folds flat against it… and, the unit is installed on an A319 bizjet.” Mr. Sugimoto, who has a history of industry soothsaying, hinted earlier that the market for retracts might be on the rise in the single-aisle market and, in some cases, in conjunction with wireless! With recent interactive and second screen technology intros there may soon be some interesting deals afoot!

One of the best and most exciting part of this job is ‘discovery by chance’ of a new technology or a new product… this year was no different and there were many. This next product was discovered by the classic accidental rendezvous followed by a “You gotta see this” and Hratch Astarjian (Mr. BOSE) never fails to surprise and amaze us with demo’s of wonderful and ingenious audio products. This time it was the QC 20i Noise Cancelling in-ear headphones. We will get to sound in a minute but first; here is a picture of what we are talking about with a new BOSE IFE representative Danielle Glassman. If you remember the line of Quiet Comfort headphones, they are always seen on the heads of passengers on planes and airports. For us, it is impossible to travel today without them. Screaming kids, aircraft noise and weird, travel, next door neighbors are all alleviated. Two problems do exist tho – they are bigger than one likes and when someone needs your attention (like the cabin crew) they have to hit you on the arm. The QC’s are that good at noise cancellation. Now the QC 20 and QC 20i show up with in-ear sized tip and a switch for letting in outside noise when needed (QC 20) and an inline mic/control switch as well (QC 20i). If you remember the control box on your bigger QC’s… that has been replaced by a new box that houses the microelectronics and rechargeable lithium-ion battery, but now, it is the size of a thin USB drive. The QC 20 product uses USB 5 volt power charging and gets 16 hours of use each time. When we tested them on the show floor for a couple minutes we could not distinguish them from the old QC’s… in fact, they sounded a bit better. Check them out!

Correction: The Lumexis Server contains 1.5 TB of SSD memory, not 60 GB as we reported last week.

• Future journeys will increasingly rely on aviation

September 24, 2013– As aviation becomes increasingly accessible in all parts of the world, future Journeys will increasingly be made by air particularly to and from emerging markets. According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) in the next 20 years (2013-2032), air traffic will grow at 4.7 per cent annually requiring over 29,220 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion. Some 28,350 of these are passenger aircraft valued at US$4.1 trillion. Of these, some 10,400 will replace existing aircraft with more efficient ones. With today’s fleet of 17,740 aircraft, it means that by 2032, the worldwide fleet will double to nearly 36,560 aircraft.

Economic growth, growing middle classes, affordability, ease of travel, urbanisation, tourism, and migration are some factors increasing connectivity between people and regions and how often they travel. Increasing urbanisation will lead to a doubling of mega cities from 42 today to 89 by 2032, and 99 per cent of the world’s long-haul traffic will be between or through these.

Traffic growth has led to average aircraft size ‘growing’ by 25 per cent with airlines selecting larger aircraft or up-sizing existing backlogs. Larger aircraft like the A380 combined with higher load factors make the most efficient use of limited slots and contribute to rising passenger numbers without additional flights as announced by London’s Heathrow Airport. A focus on sustainable growth enabled fuel burn and noise reductions of at least 70 per cent in the last 40 years and this trend continues with innovations like the A320neo, the A320 Sharklet, the A380 and the A350 XWB.

“By 2032, Asia-Pacific will lead the world in traffic overtaking Europe and North America. Today on average, a fifth of the population of the emerging markets take a flight annually and by 2032, this will swell to two thirds. The attraction of air travel means that passenger numbers will more than double from today’s 2.9 billion, to 6.7 billion by 2032, clearly demonstrating aviation’s essential role in economic growth,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer – Customers.

Domestic flows are also set to rise strongly with domestic India growing at the fastest rate (nearly 10 per cent), followed by China and Brazil (seven per cent). Overall, with an above world average traffic growth rate of 5.5 per cent, Asia-Pacific will account for 36 per cent of all new passenger aircraft demand, followed by Europe (20 per cent) and North America (19 per cent).

In the Very Large aircraft market, dominated by the A380, there is a requirement for 1,334 passenger aircraft valued at US$519 billion. Of these, 47 per cent will be needed in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by the Middle East (26 per cent) and then Europe (16 per cent). Asia-Pacific’s requirement for the A380 is demonstrated by the region’s growth in middle classes which is set to quadruple in Asia-Pacific in 20 years.

In the Twin Aisle market, covered by amongst others the A350 XWB and the A330, the requirement is for 6,779 aircraft valued at US$1.82 trillion. Of these, 48 per cent of deliveries will be in Asia Pacific, followed by Europe (15 per cent) and the Middle East (13 per cent).

The Single Aisle market represents 71 per cent of deliveries by unit numbers with a requirement for 20,242 aircraft valued at US$1.80 trillion. Asia-Pacific will require 34 per cent of deliveries followed by North America and Europe requiring 23 per cent each. The global success of low cost carriers (LCC) especially in Europe, and increasingly in Asia, the Middle East and Africa is helping to open new markets and give access to the benefits of flight to first time flyers from these regions. By 2032, LCCs will have increased their traffic market share from today’s 17 per cent to 21 per cent.

– Region’s airlines to benefit from second highest traffic growth in the world

November 16, 2012– According to the recently released Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF), Latin American airlines will require 2,120 new aircraft between today and 2031, including 1,660 single-aisle, 420 twin-aisle and 40 very large aircraft estimated at $242 billion. Globally, by 2031 some 28,200 new aircraft valued at $4 trillion will be required to satisfy future robust market demand.

With GDP currently growing above the world average, socio-economic indicators predict Latin America’s middle class will double between 2012 and 2031. Additionally, Latin America has become the second most urbanised region worldwide after North America, and by 2031, 10 out of the 92 mega-cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers will be in the region.

As a result of this region’s dynamic economic growth, Latin America’s air traffic will rise 5.3 percent per year over the next 20 years, well above the world average of 4.7 percent. Benefiting from this, the region’s airlines will grow their own traffic by almost 6 percent per year, the second highest growth globally, only exceeded by those airlines based in the Middle East. Additionally, Latin American airlines’ market share on long-haul routes increased by 8 percent between 2005 and 2011, to reach 21 percent today, showing that they have significant development potential for intercontinental networks.

Increased aircraft demand is also leading Latin American airlines to ordering larger aircraft. Between 2000 and 2012, average aircraft seat capacity increased by more than 13 percent, while the average age of Latin America’s fleet in service decreased below the world average to 10 years of age.

“The Latin American market has become smarter, seeking out highly-efficient, cost-effective and versatile aircraft,” said Rafael Alonso, Executive Vice President of Airbus for Latin America and the Caribbean. “Airbus is perfectly positioned to serve the market’s requirements and future aviation demand with its A320, A330 and A350 Families, as well as the A380.”

Another important trend in Latin America is the rise of low cost carriers throughout the region. Brazil and Mexico have become leaders of the low-cost-carrier segment in the region, with the two countries combined contributing to 95 percent of the market.

With more than 700 aircraft sold and a backlog of almost 350, over 450 Airbus aircraft are in operation throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. In the last 10 years, Airbus has tripled its in-service fleet, while delivering more than 60 percent of all aircraft operating in the region.

– Over 10,000 passenger jets to be replaced by newer fuel efficient models

September 4, 2012– Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) identifies a need for some 28,200 passenger and freighter aircraft (of 100 seats or more) between 2012 and 2031 worth nearly US$4.0 trillion, reconfirming an upward trend in the pace of new aircraft deliveries. Of these over 27,350 will be passenger aircraft valued at US$ 3.7 trillion.

Passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 4.7 percent in the next 20 years, during which some 10,350 aircraft will be replaced by new efficient models. By 2031 the world’s passenger fleet will have expanded by 110 percent from slightly over 15,550 today to over 32,550. In the same period, the world’s freighter fleet will almost double from 1,600 to 3,000 aircraft.

Emerging economic regions will represent more than half of all traffic growth in the next 20 years. Increasing urbanisation and the doubling of the world’s middle classes to five billion people is also driving growth. By 2031 mega cities will more than double to 92 and over 90 percent of the world’s traffic will be between or through these points.

“Aside from growth in international traffic, by 2031 four of the world’s biggest traffic flows will all be domestic – US, China, Intra Western Europe and India – and these account for a third of world traffic,” says John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers. “In 20 years from now, China’s domestic passenger traffic will overtake the US domestic traffic to become the number one traffic flow in our forecast. Aviation is not just essential for international commerce, but also for domestic economies too.”

Asia Pacific will account for 35 percent of all new aircraft deliveries, followed by Europe and North America with 21 percent each. In value terms, the single biggest market is China followed by the US, UAE and India.

Over 1,700 Very Large Aircraft (VLA – 400 seats and above) like the A380 will have been delivered by 2031, valued at US$600 billion. Of these over 1,330 are passenger aircraft valued at some US$500 billion (13 percent by value of passenger deliveries, 5 percent of units). Asia Pacific leads demand (46 percent) for these high capacity aircraft, followed by the Middle East (23 percent) and Europe (19 percent).

Demand for twin-aisle aircraft (250 to 400 seats), like the A330 and the A350 XWB, some 6,970 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered valued at some US$1.7 trillion. Of these, 6,500 are passenger aircraft valued at US$1.6 trillion (44 percent by value of passenger deliveries, 24 percent of units). Leading demand is Asia Pacific (46 percent), Europe (17 percent) and the North America (13 percent).

In the next 20 years, over 19,500 single-aisle aircraft worth over US$1,6 trillion will be delivered (43 percent of passenger deliveries by value, 71 percent by units). A third of deliveries will be in Asia Pacific followed by North America (25 percent) and Europe (22 percent). Some 30 percent of all deliveries in this category will be for Low Cost Carriers.

Modern Eco-Efficient Fleets Driving Demand

June 8, 2010 – Airlines in Germany will require nearly 1,150 new passenger aircraft above 100 seats and freighters over the next 20 years, according to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF). These new aircraft will include some 780 short-haul single-aisle aircraft, more than 280 twin-aisle medium to long-range wide-body aircraft, and around 90 very large aircraft such as the A380. These new aircraft are valued at approximately US$ 144 billion at today’s list prices. The main drivers for this investment are the growing demand for air travel and the benefits that can be derived by operating the most modern and eco-efficient fleets. As a result, Germany’s aircraft fleet is expected to more than double, growing from over 500 aircraft (of more than 100 seats) in operation at the beginning of 2009 to more than 1,200 by 2028.

“In terms of new passenger aircraft deliveries, Germany will rank third in the world,” said John Leahy COO Customers, Airbus. “Furthermore, Germany’s leading position as a gateway for the world’s air travelers will be further enhanced especially with Lufthansa’s A380s now joining the fleet.”

Germany’s air travel has achieved 34% growth from 2000 to 2009 despite two of the worst downturns in aviation history. The main growth drivers have been the recovering international traffic from Germany to the Middle East (+180%), emerging markets in China (+117%) and India (+131%), as well as the more traditional markets of North America (+28%) and Asia (+20%). Furthermore, the Airbus GMF predicts that over the next 20 years Western Europe is expected to show an average annual growth rate of 4.4%. Routes to the Middle East (+5.5%), the CIS (+6.0%), Central Europe (+6.7%) and Asia (+4.6%) will be the most important levers for growth. Germany’s strong and growing demand for air travel is based on its continued economic development, growing tourism, the emergence of low-cost-carriers and the country’s position as a major air transportation gateway.

Six German operators (Air Berlin/LTU, Condor, Germanwings, Hamburg International, Lufthansa, plus the German Air Force) currently rely on the excellence of Airbus’ modern product range, operating a combined total of 306 modern, fuel efficient aircraft (216 A320 Family aircraft, 10 A300/A310s, 79 A330/A340s, and now the region’s first A380). Overall, Airbus aircraft make up 55 per cent of today’s fleet in Germany. In addition, 79 more aircraft are still in the Airbus backlog for delivery (65 A320 Family plus 14 A380s). Lufthansa is Germany’s largest Airbus operator, and also the world’s biggest Airbus airline customer.

Today Germany is a major gateway for travelers worldwide, enabled by both its airlines and important hub airports. Out of all the 36 European countries, Germany provides the most passenger traffic into the CIS and China, and second into North America, the Middle East, Indian sub-continent and Asia.