Every so often we get a call from our friend Craig Foster at Valour Consultancy and while we talked IFE, he noted that Valour Consultancy had published a piece he had written on Bizjet IFE. We were interested because in the past, the Bizjet folks usually embraced technology before the IFE world did. We thought you might like to see if that is still true and the folks at Valour (and Craig) kindly provided a copy for our readers to view. If you wish to contact Craig, you can reach him at craig.foster@valourconsultancy.com – and thanks!

The Market for In-Flight Connectivity on VIP and Business Aircraft – Valour Consultancy
Last month, Valour Consultancy released its latest analysis of the market for in-flight connectivity on VIP and business aircraft. The study draws upon our considerable expertise in analysing the adoption of in-flight connectivity (IFC) in commercial aviation and is the result of a rigorous primary research phase consisting of numerous interviews with key players from across the industry.

The report finds that, globally, there were 19,131 IFC systems on VIP and business aircraft at the end of 2016. L-band was by far and away the most dominant connectivity technology with cumulative connections representing 75% of the total. A large proportion of this is accounted for by Iridium, whose systems support in-flight satellite phone operations on almost 10,000 aircraft. The remainder of L-band connections are accounted for by Inmarsat, which has seen adoption of SwiftBroadband (SBB) pick up rapidly in recent years.

Uptake of Gogo’s Air-to-Ground (ATG) options has been similarly brisk in recent years. By the end 2013, there were 2,047 terminals connected to the Gogo Biz network. This had increased to 4,172 three years later.

ATG and L-band both have room for further growth in coming years, too.

With respect to ATG, there will likely be continued interest in Gogo’s solutions over the course of the forecast period (2016 to 2026), especially now that the company is close to commercial launch of Gogo Biz 4G and plans to have its next-generation ATG network, which will offer peak network speeds of more than 100 Mbps, up and running by 2018.

When you add SmartSky Networks and its 4G network into the mix, as well as the Inmarsat European Aviation Network (EAN), it is apparent that there remains plenty of potential for ATG technology. Though it is yet to be officially confirmed whether the EAN will be used by the business aviation industry, there appears to be consensus that it would work very well on board private aircraft.

While Inmarsat is reportedly seeing a lot of interest from operators looking to upgrade from lower-bandwidth IFC systems to Jet ConneX, the company is also working on increasing the performance of the L-band technology used for SBB. Iridium, meanwhile, recently celebrated the successful launch of the second batch of Iridium NEXT satellites. Upon completion of the constellation in 2018 and the start of commercial service one year later, the so-called Iridium Certus solution will likely find favour among operators of those small- and medium-sized business jets less suited to the fitment of bulky radomes.

Adoption of Ku-band technology on VIP and business aircraft appears to have an equally rosy future – a view presumably shared by new market entrants, Panasonic Avionics and Global Eagle, as well as Gogo, which recently announced its first business aviation customer for 2Ku. Right now, there are some 500 Ku-band systems in operation on VIP and business aircraft and the vast majority of these are accounted for by ViaSat and its Yonder system (although it’s no longer referred to as Yonder, to shift the focus towards the ViaSat brand). Panasonic and Global Eagle representatives have not been shy in admitting that they are gunning for ViaSat in this market.

However, ViaSat appears content to focus on ensuring existing clients migrate to its Ka-band technology – a sensible strategy given the ongoing success of its Exede in the Air product in commercial aviation. Now that ViaSat-2 has finally launched after several setbacks, there will soon be a considerable amount of additional Ka-band capacity for business jets flying between North America and Europe. Additionally, the company says that it will have its three planned ViaSat-3 satellites operational around 2020 making ViaSat the only rival provider of global Ka-band capacity to Inmarsat.

By 2020, ViaSat could have some catching up to do if the take up of Jet ConneX is anything to go by. Having debuted in November 2016, there were an estimated 30 aircraft fitted with the solution by the turn of the year. Inmarsat has previously stated that it expects to see 150 Jet ConneX-equipped aircraft by the end of 2017 and has a goal of connecting 3,000 jets by 2020 (although it is apparently now upgrading its forecasts).

Overall, we are forecasting that by the end of 2026, there will be 37,710 IFC systems installed on VIP and business aircraft – almost double the current total. The reader should, of course, note that these numbers do not refer to the number of aircraft with IFC. In fact, it is estimated that today, around 1,000 to 2,000 aircraft with Iridium satellite phones also make use of Inmarsat’s SBB network. Likewise, Gogo has publicly reported 4,172 connections to its Gogo Biz service and acts as the service provider for 5,286 installed Iridium terminals as well as 214 installed SBB terminals (a total of 9,972 connections – all accurate and up to date at the end of 2016). However, the firm delivers services to 7,400 aircraft implying many are flying with more than one system installed.

The following factors have driven interest in IFC on VIP and business aircraft and will continue to do so in future:

• Owners of business aircraft fitted with connectivity equipment some time ago will be keener to take advantage of more recent advances in satellite and hardware technology.
• The ‘Uber-isation’ of the private aviation industry is increasingly being talked about and with e-commerce replacing traditional methods of sourcing and booking a business jet, easy comparisons between different operators and aircraft means that customers can see where one aircraft has IFC and another doesn’t. This transparency will further encourage operators to improve their offerings.
• As well as the increased comparison between business jets and their features because of new e-commerce initiatives, business aviation is having to compete with the rapid adoption of IFC in commercial air transport perhaps making a first class connected seat more attractive than a private jet with no in-flight Wi-Fi.
• Competition is hotting up with the likes of Global Eagle, Panasonic Avionics, BizJetMobile and SmartSky Networks all new to the market or preparing to enter.
• The launch of several new high throughput satellites (HTS) and the prospect of cheaper capacity and faster services is having an extremely positive effect on the market with service providers having inked several new deals in recent years.
• The connected aircraft and e-Enablement is beginning to resonate more and more as a way to drive operational efficiencies and help underpin the IFC business case.

Some of the remaining challenges to more widespread adoption of IFC on VIP and business aircraft are as follows.

• Production of new business jets has stagnated and consequently reduced the possibility of line-fit offerability deals for many IFC providers and limited their opportunities for growth.
• Fitting an aircraft with a sizeable antenna to enable IFC impacts aerodynamics and increases fuel burn, thereby driving up operating costs. Additionally, many smaller business jets are currently unable to accommodate larger Ku- and Ka-band antennas on their fuselages.
• Current generation Ku-/Ka-band systems lock operators into the service provider (so the hardware is not provider agnostic) and should there be a desire to switch, a very expensive refit ensues.
• While commercial airlines tend to fly set routes at specific times of day, business jets are more sporadic. One day they may be flying domestically in the US, the next they may be making their way to China or Russia. This uncertainty means high-bandwidth IFC solutions that offer global coverage – which are currently few in number – are perhaps more compelling.
• Many in the industry are concerned that as we move towards realising the vision of the fully-connected aircraft, the opportunity for cyberattacks will increase. The main worry seems to be that such systems will allow wrongdoers to control aircraft and manipulate commands issued to the aircraft. It should be noted that flight control systems are purposefully isolated from all other communications networks on-board the aircraft.
• Selling an IFC service based on deployment events that have not happened is a significant challenge and operators understandably give much more credit to satellite assets in space than on paper. Further, a delay to the launch of any service has the potential to scare prospective customers away or send them into the arms of rivals. Unfortunately, such delays are all too commonplace for many much-anticipated IFC solutions.

Published in May 2017, “The Market for In-Flight Connectivity on VIP and Business Aircraft” provides an unrivalled insight and analysis into the current and future deployment of IFC on these aircraft. The number of IFC systems installed in 2016 is quantified with forecasts out to 2026 and data is segmented by fitment type, aircraft size, frequency band and geographic region with a full qualitative discussion of the key trends at play in support of this. The report also sizes the market for both service revenues and key enabling hardware, in addition to market share estimates for service providers and capacity providers. A chapter profiling key players is presented, too.”

• Gogo Biz 4G will provide fast, reliable and proven performance to the business aviation market

Broomfield, CO | October 14, 2015– Gogo Inc. (NASDAQ: GOGO), the leading provider of in-flight connectivity and entertainment solutions to the global aero market, announces a new 4G connectivity solution for the business aviation market.
Available at the beginning of 2017, Gogo Biz 4G represents a significant increase in capability when compared to existing solutions. It will give business aircraft passengers “the speed they need” to power their digital lifestyles in flight – without skipping a beat.
Gogo Biz 4G – Key Capabilities

• Reliable 4G performance
• Streaming video and audio
• E-mail with attachments
• Web browsing
• Voice
• VPN support
• Service coverage in the continental U.S. and portions of Alaska and Canada
• Utilizes advanced air-to-ground technology operating on licensed spectrum
• Loyalty programs with significant trade-in incentives available to current Gogo customers wishing to upgrade to Gogo Biz 4G

John Wade, Gogo Business Aviation’s executive vice president and general manager, said, “We cracked the code on in-flight connectivity many years ago, and we’re excited to continue offering more and more performance to customers. Gogo Biz 4G is a solution business aircraft operators can count on. It leverages Gogo’s proven air-to-ground network and technology that has already flown hundreds of thousands of hours aboard thousands of business and commercial aircraft.”

Created specifically for the business aviation market, Gogo Biz 4G is a specially-designed application of Gogo’s latest air-to-ground technology. The Gogo Biz 4G equipment package will incorporate dual-band 802.11ac Wi-Fi service and a host of other features – all from a single, lightweight box.

IFExpress first met Dr. Axel Jahn, TriaGnoSys, Managing Director at AIX in Hamburg. His then little company had developed a small, lightweight, inflight connectivity box (aeroBTS) that had the satcom radios, server, GSM/GPR phone radio and WAP, all in one box. Ideal for biz jets, we dubbed the product “The One-Box-Wonder”. The name stuck and so did the product and today, busy Axel wanted to tell our readers all about the future of inflight telephony (3G or 4G?) in our Speakers’ Corner feature. Read on:

THE FUTURE OF INFLIGHT MOBILE TELEPHONY: 3G OR 4G?
by Dr Axel Jahn, Managing Director, TriaGnoSys

As smartphone penetration increases and the applications available become increasingly sophisticated, people are becoming more and more used to using their phones all the time. This is also true in the air. OnAir, which provides both mobile phone networks and Wi-Fi, reports that, when both networks are available, 97% of passengers choose to use their mobile phones. And that is using a 2.5G network.

It is clear passengers’ desire to use their mobile phones during flights is not going to go away. The key question for techies like us is what the next development should be: 3G or 4G? We think 4G is the answer.

At first glance, that looks like the wrong answer because 3G is ubiquitous. It is true there are varying standards for 3G, for example China has a proprietary version. Nevertheless, it is available throughout the developed world. On the other hand, 4G is in its infancy and it will take a while to become the norm. It therefore appears to make sense to develop 3G for inflight connectivity.

But there are other factors. Even though 4G is only just coming onto the market, it isn’t something new. It is also called LTE – Long Term Evolution – which says everything. It has been under development for a long time and the fact that telecoms companies are not sufficiently confident to bring it to market means it is ready. As we saw with 3G, once handset manufacturers start enabling it as standard, adoption rates accelerate fast. There are rumours that the iPhone 5 will have 4G this autumn and we know what iPhone developments do to the market.

4G will be here to stay for a while. The history of the various generations of standards is that each one lasts longer that its predecessor. 2G was quickly overtaken by 2.5G; 3G took a little longer to take hold and remains the dominant standard. Once 4G takes the baton, it is likely to remain around for a while. It will provide such a major step-change in the available bandwidth that it will take years before we start using it all.

There is another aspect to the timing. One thing we have learned is that it takes a long time to develop inflight connectivity technology. The WirelessCabin project, which we managed, took over two years to get the first inflight GSM demonstrator flying in 2004 and it was another three years before the first commercial flight. We actually looked at 3G then, but came to the conclusion that LTE advances would mean inflight 3G would be behind the curve before it became available. In fact, we have already started work on a 4G solution and our (conservative) projections show it will be ready for commercial launch by 2015, by when 4G will be widely used on the ground – though GSM and GPRS will remain available so anyone who doesn’t have a 4G phone won’t miss out. Happily, that coincides with the launch of Inmarsat’s Ka-band service because the extra bandwidth will be required for 4G.

Finally, there are technological reasons for avoiding inflight 3G. The obvious one is that 4G/LTE provides much higher bandwidth and advanced architecture, so can be used to for wireless streaming of IFE content in the aircraft, meaning passengers can use their own devices to access that content. That will be of particular interest for aircraft that do not have embedded IFE systems, both to provide enhanced passenger service and as a potential ancillary revenue generator.

It is the 4G architecture that allows this to happen. It is much more flexible than 3G and in particular that means it can be used to provide local content without going over the satellite, something that can’t be done with 3G. Also, unlike 3G, 4G is truly a global standard with no regional variations, so everyone will be able to use it during flights.

4G is the right choice for the next stage of inflight mobile connectivity. The timing works, it is a more appropriate technology and it will be around for years to come.

Contact Dr. Axel Jahn

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