Lessons Learned & The Up Hill Battle of the Aviation Industry In the Times of COVID-19 and Other Industry News

We are roughly six months into the COVID-19 global pandemic and in that time-frame our industry, and many others, have witnessed some radical and dynamic shifts. As we know, the leisure and family holidays have almost been eradicated with COVID. The air travel industry prior to the pandemic hummed along with business travel accounting for approximately 60% – 70% of all airline revenue, but perhaps the greater worry is the shift to webinars, ZOOM, Skype and many other forms of internet meetings, which may turn out to be the bigger sucker-punch, resulting in the cancellation of business travel with longer fiscal consequences. And some analysts are predicting that it will take a little more than 3 years for business travel to begin to rebound.

In the meantime, there is no end in sight from the move to remote work. Over the past few months many major companies have announced some form of permanent or long-term work-from-home scenarios. COVID-19 has shown and convinced companies such as REI, Ford, Twitter and others that their employees are capable of performing their jobs at home, and may even be performing better. The result is a massive reduction in the corporate office footprint. The uptick is these companies will save huge leasing costs and their employees will be thrilled they no longer face heinous daily commutes, but what will be the ancillary costs – and there will be inevitably be some. And one of these may well be a reduced need for business travel.

As with any crisis, the longer it goes on the more we learn. And often, our initial attempts to improve a process or make a situation safer are either in vein or are proven to be ineffective, or possibly counter productive, over time. In the case of the pandemic and airlines, one such circumstance may turn out to be the changes which were implemented in the boarding process. In an effort to minimize close contact between passengers, several U.S. carriers and some international carriers, began to board their flights from the rear of the jetliner to the front. New research is now indicating that it may actually do the opposite! Scientists from the USA have recently found that starting the boarding process from the back rows actually increases the amount of time spent by passengers milling about in the aisles to load bags in the overhead compartments prior to taking their seats.

But the boarding procedure is merely one example of how airlines are stumbling to make travel safe during COVID-19, and lure back passengers. Inconsistent policies in regards to leaving the middle seat vacant are also being instituted and so far there is no scientific evidence to back the benefit and/or necessity of doing so. Needless to say, there are large holes in both the data and the research, which inevitably bogs down the path forward. We are experiencing a situation where there is a vast amount of expert opinions but there is a scarcity of good data to back them up. And we are dealing with a leery, fearful public.

Another area that is a source of confusion and concern for the passenger is cabin air quality and the air filtration system on an airplane. As many of us in the industry know, the air in the cabin of an aircraft is passed through filters that are equal to those used in hospital operating rooms, thus there seems to be minimal danger of infection from circulated air but this is not common knowledge to the average passenger. However, the risk is in the cabin long before the air is recirculated. When we talk, cough, or sneeze respiratory droplets are released which will go to the passenger next to you long before they get circulated through the jetliner’s air filtration system. In fact a government-funded 2012 study concluded that between 3 – 20 passengers on a flight of four hours onboard a twin-aisle that were seated near a person with influenza would most likely become infected – and the flu is thought to be less contagious than COVID-19. The study also showed that if passengers wore N95 masks (high quality masks worn by medical workers in dangerous environments but not widely available to the general public) that the odds of infection dropped to nearly zero. The study did not analyze the benefits from wearing cloth face masks but the researchers predict they would decrease the likelihood of contracting the virus but not be as effective a N95.

A more recent 2018 study that was published by the National Academy of Sciences stated that there was a ‘high probability’ that passengers seated within one row of a traveler with influenza would be infected on a trans continental flight.

The aviation industry in the U.S.A. has been adhering to the advice of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and so far there have been ‘no known cases’ of infection from COVID-19 onboard U.S. flights. The industry has been nimble in their reactions to a rapidly evolving situation and has been working in conjunction with medical experts on decisions pertaining to cleaning and operational procedures. No-contact check-in is another example. But needless to say the issue begs for more research. Enforcing the necessity of wearing masks, plane disinfecting and other safety procedures are all logical, but unfortunately there is currently no solid evidence to show that these precautions will overcome the risks of the tight environment of the jetliner cabin.

Lastly, since 2015 the Government Accountability Office has been calling for a plan to respond to a pandemic scenario but so far government agencies have been unwilling to draw up a formal plan for the aviation sector.

SmartSky Networks

SmartSky Networks has filed a federal lawsuit against its former radio contractor, Wireless Systems Solutions LLC (WSS), after terminating the WSS contract and asserting that WSS misappropriated SmartSky’s intellectual property. SmartSky’s lawsuit alleges improper actions by WSS, two related entities (DAG Wireless LTD and DAG Wireless USA), and three of their senior leaders.

“We have pledged to defend our intellectual property vigorously because it is critical to our success. In this situation, WSS failed to complete what it was contracted to do for SmartSky.  Simultaneously, we believe WSS attempted to sell our product as its own, including through an alter-ego company formed after we began working with WSS yet involving the same people,” said Ryan Stone, SmartSky President.

“This activity has caused a delay in SmartSky bringing our next-generation WiFi network to the aviation market,” Stone said. “We’re transferring WSS’s former work scope to contractors who have performed well for us in the past on other aspects of our program.”

SmartSky recently closed on more than $40 million in additional equity funding, $10 million in new debt, and now expects to launch its network in 2021. Demand is increasing for connectivity on aircraft, and SmartSky believes there is plenty of runway for innovation in this space.

Gogo

Gogo Inc.commented on the disclosure that certain affiliates of GTCR, a leading private equity firm, have acquired a 14.8% interest in Gogo’s common stock.

“We welcome GTCR’s interest in Gogo and look forward to an ongoing and constructive dialogue as we execute our strategic plan,” said Oakleigh Thorne, Gogo’s President and CEO. “We believe GTCR shares our vision for Gogo and the opportunity to continue to create value for all shareholders.” “We believe Gogo’s decision to focus on its leading business aviation business will create a stronger company that is well-positioned to grow in an attractive market,” said Mark Anderson, Managing Director at GTCR. “We look forward to supporting Gogo as it completes the sale of the commercial aviation business and seeks to capitalize on the compelling opportunity in business aviation.”

Some Stumbling Blocks with Facial Recognition

An audit of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the GAO found facial recognition programs fell short in a few areas:

• Performance tracking. Although the tech accurately identified over 90% of those exiting the U.S. by air, it didn’t consistently photograph all travelers—and there’s no mechanism to alert officials when the technology misses minimum requirements.
• Partner audits. CBP can conduct audits on all of its partners, but as of May, it had audited just one of more than 27 airlines.
• Clear communication. U.S. citizens and eligible non-citizens can opt out of facial recognition, but CBP consistently failed to make that known.
• According to CBP officials, a t the end of 2019, out of 16 million passengers scanned, facial recognition helped identify seven “impostors”.
• Zoom out: Facial recognition technology still has many issues and glitches, which include racial and gender biases. And the probability of a false positive are very high.

Other News

• If you are an earphone addict like we are, keep your eyes open for the coming next generation of in-ear headphones (No wires) –
  Bose announces $279 QuietComfort Earbuds and $179 Sport Earbuds – The Verge
• US DOT reports 18 US airlines carried 21.4m pax in July, down 73% vs July 2019, but up 30% from 16.5m in June 2020. – source: Speednews
• If you are curious about the western fires in the USA, here are some pictures. And yes, we are smoked out! Western wildfires rage in California, Oregon and Washington – in pictures | World news | The Guardian