Current Market Outlook?

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If you have not seen the latest airliner sales projections from Boeing you might want to first check out their web offering of the Current Market Outlook (vs Airbus). As one might expect, both Boeing and Airbus see growth in the short term time frame, the current market conditions might temper their estimates later this year. Airbus calls an average growth of 4.9% per year while Boeing sees a 5% growth annually. While most Inflight Entertainment Marketing troops abide by this data, aircraft vendor backlog is just as important.

Both Boeing and Airbus ooze optimism with Airbus seeing some 24,300 new planes in the next 20 years and Boeing looking toward 29,000.

Why the difference? As can be expected, they differ in the following ways:

Single-Aisle       Twin-Aisle       Very Large      
Airbus       55% 35% 9%
Boeing       71% 25% 4%

The A380 bias is at work here (2% so far this year) and the IFE crowd needs to get it straight for future production planning purposes. Wouldn’t it be great to develop a scalable system whereby one size fits all…just more of it?

With an average from the producers of 799 aircraft per year, it will be interesting to see what 2010 brings. As airline analysts are now talking about a worldwide loss of $10.4B, this average is hard to imagine in the short term and this must mean order delays/cuts. The economy is the driver here but with airlines like JAL cutting service and looking at $1B – $2B yen loans, the uptick is not here.

From a future planning point of view, Boeing sees growth percentages in the single-aisle market and declination in the “Very Large” category (surprise). Airbus, on the other hand, sees 68% of the next 20 years worth of planes being single-aisle while Twins occupy some 25%. This leaves a 20 year estimate for “Very Large” planes at 9%. A lot certainly depends on the A350 and B787. Growth in the regional sector might also challenge some vendors of IFE as smaller, cheaper, and lighter are becoming the IFE of the future. With China seeing growth almost 30% beyond the world economy, IFE content better include Chinese subtitles.

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